Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Tue Apr 25

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PULSATING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
AND IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 241632Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWING CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW FEEDING
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY TD 03W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-TO-LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS SOMETIME NEAR TAU 48, CHANGING ITS TRAJECTORY TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, MOST NOTABLY BY THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. BEYOND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DRIVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO SHARPLY INCREASE RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TRACK TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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