Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Fri Jul 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO
THE WEST OF A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 10W IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A STR LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 10W WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MODERATE VWS WILL
PERSIST; HOWEVER, WARM SST AND HIGH OHC VALUES IN THE AREA REMAIN
FAVORABLE, RESULTING IN SLOW INTENSIFICATION - UP TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU
72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN TD 10W. HOWEVER, THE APPROACH OF TS 09W FROM THE
EAST MAY INITIATE A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION, CAUSING 10W TO TRACK
MORE POLEWARD. THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL TRACK SPEEDS, LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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