Tropical Storm NANGKA Advisory Sun Jul 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF UTIRIK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE WITH A
VISIBLE LLCC. THE POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY A 040646Z GPI IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOP DOES DEPICT DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST, THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED. AS SUCH, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TS
11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. AS THE STR BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND TRACK TO THE EAST, EXPECT A POLEWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK FOR TS 11W. STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFETIME AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
GROWTH AT AN AVERAGE RATE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK AS THE STR MOVES TO THE EAST,
ALLOWING TS 11W TO GAIN LATITUDE. TS NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK SPEED AND LOCATION
THOUGH TAU 120.//
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