Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Mon Sep 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 210611Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI AND THE MICROWAVE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS SUPPORTED BY A
POINT SOURCE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MODIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. TS 16W HAS TAKEN A SHARPER NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT A GREATER
SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
CURRENT BEST TRACK. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITIONING AND OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MODIFYING STR DUE TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BUT LAND INTERACTION AS IT DRAGS
ALONG TAIWANESE EASTERN SEABOARD, WILL LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION. BY
TAU 24, TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN ON A MORE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR REORIENTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL INTO EASTERN CHINA BY TAU 36. CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, TS 16W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK SPEEDS AND EXTENT OF A MODIFYING RIDGE
CAUSING UNUSUAL MOVEMENT, THERE IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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