Tropical Storm MEGI Advisory Mon Sep 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MEGI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TY 20W HAS NOT
YET FORMED AN EYE BUT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DUE TO THE
EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND A 250657Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) BASED ON THE IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TY MEGI IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE,
AND REFLECTS AN EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND AREA OVER ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
    B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN A
STRAIGHT-RUNNER PATTERN WHILE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS
UNDER VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A 100-NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48, NEAR LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN.
AFTER TAU 48, TY MEGI WILL CROSS OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
    C.  AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL
MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA NEAR TAU 72, AND WILL BEGIN
DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS.//
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