Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory Fr, 03-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM
NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT DRAGGED ACROSS
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY WERE BASED ON A RADAR IMAGE LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL
WEATHER BUREAU AND REFERENCED FROM MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE VICINITY OF TAIPEI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALBEIT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED
CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
HONSHU, JAPAN. THIS STR HAS SOLIDLY ASSUMED STEERING OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE IT MAKES A
SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST
TRACK. TS SAOLA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36.    //
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