Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Fri Jul 04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC. A
030519Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED CENTER AND CHAOTIC STRUCTURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK SPEED.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS LIMITED DUE TO
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE BY KNES. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE 03/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG STR ORIENTED EAST-
WEST, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR TAIWAN. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 135 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY ERRATIC AND, IN GENERAL,
IS TRENDING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON THE LACK
OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM, TD 08W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 THEN AT A GREATER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
RECURVE WITH A 300 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. TD 08W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU 96 DUE
TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
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