Tropical Storm NARI Advisory Tue Oct 15

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CLEARING EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME VISIBLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT 77 KNOTS WITH
THE ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SHOWING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IN THE PAST
SIX HOURS. A RECENT 140153Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY MIGHT BE EVEN WEAKER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES CURRENTLY
INDICATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A RECENT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 24W HAS MOVED OVER A POOL OF
WARMER (28 DEGREES CELSIUS) WATER. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HUE, VIETNAM AROUND
TAU 18. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN SST AND FAVORABLE VWS SHOULD ALLOW TY
24W TO REMAIN A STRONG TYPHOON AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM.
LAND INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER LANDFALL, WITH
A FULL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WESTWARD TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN