Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory Tue Mar 31

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 13-NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 300438Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A SLIGHTLY OBLONG EYEWALL WITH WEAKER
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS)
FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY
04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TY 04W SHOULD TRACK
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF ONLY 150 NM
AT TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL TURN WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR AND
ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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