Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory Fri Apr 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, TY 04W HAS
RETAINED STRONG CORE CONVECTION AND A 16-NM EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 020723Z SSMIS IMAGE
REVEALS A WEAKENING EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSENSUS AGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT VWS OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS IMPEDING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY MAYSAK IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS VWS
INCREASES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES. THIS WEAKENING WILL
BE ENHANCED DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL
OVER CENTRAL LUZON NEAR TAU 60.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY MAYSAK WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. IN ADDITION, NEAR
TAU 120, TY 04W WILL MOVE INTO SST BELOW 26 CELSIUS WHICH WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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