Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Wed Jul 15

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THAT DESPITE THE CYCLONE LOSING ITS EYE FEATURE, IT HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 83 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW, AIDED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. TY HALOLA
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE VARIABLE AS THE TUTT CELL ASSISTING WITH OUTFLOW DISSIPATES AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST SUPPRESSES THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE VARIABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
A MODEST INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEND TO A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36 AS THE STEERING STR FLATTENS AND PRESSES
DOWN ON THE CYCLONE.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY HALOLA WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STEERING STR AXIS.
EXPECT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION TO INCREASE AS TY 01C REGAINS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINING UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 3
CYCLES. THIS LENDS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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