Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Sun Jul 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 61//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING EVEN AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOW UNDERGOING EAST-WEST ELONGATION. ADDITIONALLY, IR SIGNATURE INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON RADAR FIXES FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 01C IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) EASTERLY VWS. HOWEVER, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS HALOLA WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL CLIP THE WEST COAST OF THE JAPANESE ISLAND OF KYUSHU AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). HIGH VWS, INTERACTION WITH JAPAN, AND EXPOSURE TO COLD SSTS IN THE SOJ WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
   B. TS HALOLA WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL CLIP THE WEST COAST OF THE JAPANESE ISLAND OF KYUSHU AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). HIGH VWS, INTERACTION WITH JAPAN, AND EXPOSURE TO COLD SSTS IN THE SOJ WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//