Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Mon Jul 27

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 65//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
ELONGATED AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND IS
SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VWS. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE WANING CONVECTION. TS 01C IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWEST TIP OF KYUSHU BEFORE TAU 12, THEN STRADDLE THE
WESTERN COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. CONTINUED VWS, LAND INTERACTION, AND EXPOSURE TO COLD
SSTS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 24,
POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//