Tropical Storm BAVI Advisory Fri Mar 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE WEST. AN 110643Z CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CURVED
BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD. TS 03W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING STR. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TS BAVI TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY LEADING TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 03W IS NOW FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS
IT TURNS WESTWARD DUE TO MINIMAL CHANGE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(DROPPING FROM 28C TO 27C). IN ADDITION, AS TS BAVI TRACKS WESTWARD
AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL INTENSIFY, OFFSETTING THE SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND ANY INCREASE IN VWS.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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