Tropical Storm BAVI Advisory Tue Mar 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM WEST
OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON MSI IMAGERY AND A 160500Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A
160328Z RSCAT PASS. TS BAVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
MOTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120 IN NORTHERN QUEENSLAND. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN