Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Wed Apr 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 03 RELOCATED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WHICH ALSO DEPICTS A PARTIAL VIEW OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29
CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE.
INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COTC AS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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