Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Tue May 19

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 47//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND ELONGATE AS IT GETS EMBEDDED
DEEPER INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 180440Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
NOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER
INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIRMASS AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 36. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH THE INTENSITY
DROPPING TO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR VERY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.//
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