Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Wed Jul 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH
RADAR IMAGERY FROM OKINAWA, JAPAN, REVEALS THE 30 NM EYE HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FLARED WHILE
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. A
080338Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE EYEWALL REMAINS WELL INTACT
WHILE SLIGHTLY THINNED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE OUTER
BANDING HAS DECREASED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE READILY APPARENT EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI
LOOP AND THE RADAR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 110 KNOTS, BASED UPON THE CONSISTENT
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF TY 08W,
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS). TY 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO MODIFY THE
STR AND SHARPLY TURN TY 08W TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO BECOME RESTRICTED. AN INCREASED
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE AND VWS GREATLY INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES FURTHER
EXPOSED TO THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN JAPAN. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS KYUSHU
AT MINIMAL TYPHOON, POSSIBLY STRONG TROPICAL STORM, STRENGTH. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND
FURTHER DEVOLVE AS THE ROUGH TERRAIN ACROSS JAPAN ALONG WITH
THE WESTERLIES, BEGIN TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL CONTINUE THE ETT PROCESS,
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER NORTHERN JAPAN AND THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96 WITH POSSIBLE
COMPLETION BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED SOUTH AT TAU 48 AND 72
ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE.//
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