Tropical Storm HAGIBIS Advisory Tue Jun 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED(EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF
CHINA. A 161859Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. AN OLDER 161334Z ASCAT PARTIALLY SHOWED SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
PGTW AS WELL AS THE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION SHOWS A COMPLEX
SYSTEM AND SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL IS IMPROVING OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE SYSTEM IS AGAIN IN WARNING STATUS DUE TO RENEGERATION AS
IT TRACKS OVER WATER.
   B. HAGIBIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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