Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Sun Jul 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 813 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED, MAINTAINED A
HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 25-NM EYE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE ROBUST ALL-AROUND OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY FACTOR TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
08W OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS;
THEREFORE, THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING
AT 150 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE
AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN AFTER TAU 96 AS
THE STR BEGINS TO SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST
VALUES, AND THE START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING
PROCESS. ALTHOUGH TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES
LAND-FALL INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIASED
TOWARDS ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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