Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Mon Jul 21

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 200555Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS INTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH
DECREASING VWS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE SYSTEM'S RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING IT AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES TAIWAN.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN,
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND FINALLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, HOWEVER, REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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