Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Sat Aug 15

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 16W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TUTT
CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES DISRUPTING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 16W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPLICATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, TOWARDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL, EXPECT
MODEST INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BEYOND
TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL REASSUME THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST. CONCURRENTLY, THE TUTT CELL WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM TD 16W, PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 48, TD 16W
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) DUE TO STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
   C. TD 16W WILL MAINTAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE DOMINANT STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OPTIMAL TO
CONTINUE RI THROUGH TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL ONCE AGAIN REDUCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND INCREASE THE VWS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDUCE THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
JTWC TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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