Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory Sun Oct 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM
EAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
150544Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE
STORM. TS 25W IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH.
TS HAIMA IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AT 135 KNOTS BY TAU
72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 140
KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 115 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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