Tropical Storm MUJIGAE Advisory Fri Oct 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
175 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE SOLID AND HAVE
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS OBSCURED BY
CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM RJTD AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, TD 22W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, WILL STRENGTHEN THE TD TO A TROPICAL
STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, INTERACTION WITH
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF LUZON WILL WEAKEN IT BACK TO A TD BEFORE IT
RE-EMERGES BACK ON THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST WEST
OF MANILA BAY. CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION
TO THE WARM SSTS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING TO 70
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TD 22W WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
LEIZHOU PENINSULA AND BRIEFLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF
OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF THE
VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER. LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE, REDUCING IT TO A WEAK TD BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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