Tropical Storm BAVI Advisory Wed Mar 18

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER ASCAT
DATA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED IN
THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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