Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory Sun Aug 10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 48//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY
11W IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF SHIKOKU, JAPAN.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIMETER
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS AS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE A
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING WHILE THE ESTIMATES FROM RJTD SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND. BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
THE OBSERVED ORGANIZATION, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 11W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TY HALONG 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE STR AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU
36. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO BE MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THEN NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. LAND INDUCED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WILL LEAD TO THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 18 TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, LEADING TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE, AMPLIFYING THE ALREADY
POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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