Tropical Storm BAVI Advisory Mon Mar 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
140616Z SSMIS 37 GHZ WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IN TINIAN, ROTA AND
SAIPAN. TS BAVI IS TRACKING AT 20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS BAVI IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO OVERALL MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, EXPECT LITTLE TO NO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. DUE TO INCREASED VWS, WATER TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, AND UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, EXPECT TO SEE SOME WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU
72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR
THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AS VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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