Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory Mon Mar 30

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH. A 290633Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND EXTENSIVE
SPIRAL BANDING. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY (NOTE THAT THE 91 GHZ
POSITION IS TILTED ABOUT 10 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
POSITION). THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY MAYSAK
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. TY
04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF ONLY 85
NM AT TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN