Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory Wed Apr 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 49 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF FAIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS DEEP AND INTENSE CONVECTION AND
MAINTAINED ITS 15-NM EYE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. A 310433Z TRMM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE EYE AND TIGHTLY
WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PTGW AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY MAYSAK
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, EXPECT A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN
THE INTENSITY OF STY MAYSAK AS VWS INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE
SSTS ARE GOOD, THE OVERALL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WEST OF 135E. FINALLY, STY 04W WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD AS THERE IS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS. THE
TOPOGRAPHICAL AFFECTS OF NORTHERN PHILIPPINES WILL PROVIDE
FRICTIONAL FORCES TO ALSO DECREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BY
TAU 120. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS.//
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