Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Thu Aug 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW THINNING
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE THAT
SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 13W
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A
STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. TY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TY SOUDELOR WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE. AFTERWARD, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DUE TO IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH A SECONDARY PEAK OF 120 KNOTS AT TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN AND EMERGE INTO THE
TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 72. LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. CONCURRENTLY, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND DRIVE THE
CYCLONE POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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