Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Sun Aug 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM EAST
OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A
150501Z SSMI, AS WELL AS RADAR FROM GUAM, SHOW THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM IN ADDITION TO SOME
BANDING FEATURES. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY AND RADAR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS A DT OF 3.0
FROM RJTD AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VWS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE DEEP STR WILL SLOWLY
TRACK TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TS GONI TO ROUND THE RIDGE. EXPECT
NOMINAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AFTERWARDS DUE TO VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW  FROM AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. EXPECT
THE SYSTEM TO DECAY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND LOWER OHC VALUES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, AS SUCH, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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