Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Wed Aug 19

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 827 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 7-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
20 KNOT) VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THAT ARE
EASILY OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT
THE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TY 16W TO
RE-INTENSIFY.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, CAUSING TY 16W TO SHIFT POLEWARD. DEGRADED
UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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