Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Sun Jul 20

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 614 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME OBSCURED BY BUILDING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 190610Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI LOOP AND SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSETTING BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72,
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING ACROSS JAPAN. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALONG THE TRACK AND WILL FURTHER SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 10W WILL CONTINUE REMAIN ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINS SOLID, UNPERTURBED BY A SECONDARY TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT
APPROACHES TAIWAN BY TAU 96. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO THE CHINESE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE
TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT OUTLIERS.//
NNNN
NNNN