Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Sat Aug 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE EVEN AS A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND HAMPERING
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE
ON THE 310411Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, DECREASING VWS, AND HIGH OHC THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
ISLAND CHAIN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE PERSISTENT CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTERWARDS AS THE DEEP
STR OVER JAPAN TRACKS TO THE EAST. INTENSIFICATION WILL THEN BE
TEMPERED BY A DECREASE IN OHC. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH AN AVERAGE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKS BEYOND TAU
72. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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