Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Tue Sep 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAKENED
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 220518Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 30
KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE SAME STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES IS PROVIDING
POLEWARD VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. TS 16W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEN
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VWS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
CONCURRENTLY, TS 16W WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION,
BECOMING A WEAK COLD-CORE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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