Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Fri Sep 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KAMMURI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436
NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND 250622Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, A POINT-SOURCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING
THE DEEP CONVECTION. TD 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 17W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 17W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANISTION (ETT) AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 96. TD 17W WILL BECOME A
STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE A STEADY DECAY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE; HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT-TERM AND LARGE SPREAD
AMONG MODEL TRACKERS AT THE TURN, THE CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
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