Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory Thu Aug 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 120721Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A PREVIOUS (120407Z) 37V SSMI IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR LLCC
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VWS BUT GOOD AND VISIBLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, SPECIFICALLY
ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AS
THEY ARE ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. TS MOLAVE IS TRACKING WITHIN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL, SSTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 26 CELSIUS THROUGH
TAU 12 ALLOWING MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, NORTH OF THE 35TH
PARALLEL, EXPECT SSTS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
TO DECAY. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AID IN THE REDUCTION OF
THE SYSTEM AND WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). EXPECT ETT TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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