Tropical Storm MEARI Advisory Sat Nov 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM NORTH OF
ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLES. A 040549Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
OF T3.0 (45 TO 55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MEARI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRANSITS THROUGH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO STR
FEATURES. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STR AXIS, VWS WILL REMAIN
LOW, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BECOME ENHANCED LEADING TO STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BY TAU 48.
   C. BY TAU 72, TS MEARI WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. VWS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL
COMMENCE BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TS MEARI
WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME AS IT ENTERS A PROMINENT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN