Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Fri Apr 28

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE AVAILABLE IMAGERY PROVIDES
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 270055Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-B
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 30-35KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. TS 03W
IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND ALOFT INDUCING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DECREASING CONVECTION AND A LESS ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 03W (MUIFA) WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INTO AN
AREA OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES POLEWARD INTO THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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