Tropical Storm HAGIBIS Advisory Mon Jun 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. BASED ON
THE MSI, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT
MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TS 07W IS
ACCELERATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS MAKING LANDFALL AT THIS
TIME.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
12 AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AFTER
TAU 12, TS HAGIBIS WILL TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TS 07W IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING
OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 36. TS 07W IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BAROCLINICITY, HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW RAPIDLY TRANSITING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA.
BASED ON THE TIGHT MODEL GROUPING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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