Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Tue Jul 08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 070600Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS STY NEOGURI IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
ASSESSMENT FROM DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STY
08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 24, STY NEOGURI
WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST, AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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