Tropical Storm KUJIRA Advisory Sun Jun 21

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR LOOP, 201127Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES
AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A STR LOCATED TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B.  TD 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE STEERING STR. BY TAU 24,
THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
SHIFT POLEWARD. MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, CAUSING A MODEST
INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES HAINAN ISLAND.
   C. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LAND FALL NEAR MAOMING, CHINA AFTER
TAU 72 AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A NORTHWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK SPEEDS AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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