Tropical Storm KUJIRA Advisory Tue Jun 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 220202Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 40 TO
45 KNOT CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
MATCHING SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 FROM PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TS
KUJIRA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS TS 08W
APPROACHES HAINAN ISLAND. LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TRACK LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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