Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Wed Jul 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS INCREASING CENTRAL ORGANIZATION AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAVE STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER WHILE A WEAKLY DEFINED CLOUD-FILLED EYE
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP. RADAR ANIMATION FROM TAIWAN ALSO
REVEALS A MORE DEFINED SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAVE DEEPENED AND HAVE STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP AND IS CLOSE TO RADAR
POSITION FIXES FROM TAIWAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION WHILE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN CONSISTENT AT 77 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER WHICH, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL
ACROSS TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TY 10W TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. DUE TO THE
QUICK TRACK OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT TIME TO RE-STRENGTHEN. INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
AFTER TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL INTO CHINA, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TY 10W,
WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TY 10W
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA AS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE ABSORPTION OF THE REMNANT LOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY BEYOND
TAU 72. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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