Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory Wed Aug 12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A FULLY CONCEALED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI AND A 110354Z N-19 SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 45 KNOTS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VWS WHICH IS OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE SYSTEM IS BEING CONSIDERED TROPICAL AS THE MAIN CONVECTION
IS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC AND THE 110358Z AMSU-B CROSS SECTION
ANALYSIS SHOWING A NEAR WARM-CORE CENTER. AS SUCH, JTWC HAS
REINSTITUTED WARNINGS.
   B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WHICH ARE TRACKING AROUND 40 DEGREES. EXPECT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48 AS SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BAROCLINIC. BY
TAU 96, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES,
COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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