Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory Mon Oct 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM NORTHWEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY REGAINING CONVECTIVE BANDING AFTER IT CROSSED THE PHILIPPINE
ISLAND OF LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS ALSO
BECOMING APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 24W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, ALLOWING FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 90 KNOTS FROM TAU 24-36.
AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN THEN NORTHERN VIETNAM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT TO 65 KNOTS, THEN RAPIDLY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR AND RAPIDLY DECAY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96
IN THE VICINITY OF HANOI, VIETNAM, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN