Tropical Storm AERE Advisory Sun Oct 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE ABSENCE OF
ANY BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL OVERCAST
HAS OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND THE INITIAL
POSITION IS MADE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND
BASED ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0
(45 TO 65 KNOTS) AND THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY FLOW EMANATING
FROM A POINT SOURCE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW NEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. CURRENTLY TS AERE IS IN A POOR STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS AERE WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS EXHIBITING QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOVEMENTS.  SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50
KNOTS DUE TO THE NEAR STATIONARY TRACK OVER AN AREA OF LOW OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT.  BEYOND TAU 36 A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER CHINA HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM
GAINS FORWARD MOTION, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT DUE TO THE POOR
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS TO THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST TRACK AFTER
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE NEAR THE GFS, ECMFW, AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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