Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory Tue Oct 18

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AS IT
DEVELOPED A RAGGED 7NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
80 KNOTS BASED ON STEADY DVORAK CI OF T4.5 FROM REPORTING AGENCIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER WARM SSTS. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE INTERACTION WITH HAINAN
ISLAND BEGINS. AFTER CROSSING THE GULF OF TONKIN, TY 24W IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL NEAR THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER BY TAU 48,
FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
ALBEIT LIMITED, REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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