Tropical Storm MEARI Advisory Sun Nov 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
NOTABLE DEEPENING IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. IN RESPONSE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5-T5.0 (77-90 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON A SMALL LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 050520Z SSMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 85GHZ IMAGE FROM THE SAME PASS REVEALS
THAT THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS. TY MEARI IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PRODUCING RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 26W IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NEAR TAU 36, TY MEARI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDS
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WESTERLIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
POLEWARD. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER
TAU 48. THE TYPHOON WILL GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPLETE
ETT AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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