MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 24// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN